Severe weather returns to its usual threat zone during the early summer
Multiple rounds of severe weather are forecast to impact the North-Central U.S., including cities such as Minneapolis, Omaha, Des Moines and Kansas City, over the next week. While the tornado risk remains low, threats of damaging winds, hail and dangerous lightning make the weather pattern hazardous for communities that find themselves inside the increased thunderstorm risk zones.
A series of pieces of energy are setting the stage for multiple days of severe weather across the North-Central U.S., in a region that has largely missed out on enhanced rainfall.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, most of the thunderstorm development will take place along frontal boundaries, which will only slightly shift from day to day, setting up a pattern for persistent rain.
Depending on the day’s activity, cities such as Minneapolis; Omaha, Nebraska; Des Moines, Iowa; and Kansas City, Missouri could find themselves in an elevated thunderstorm risk zone.
Any thunderstorm can be dangerous with cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rainfall, but in the strongest storms, damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible.
Forecasters have not ruled out a tornado threat, but the tornadic element is not considered as substantial as it would be in supercells with ample wind shear.
EMERGING FUNGAL DISEASE THREATENS STRAWBERRY CROPS
June and July are typically when the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest experience their most adverse weather from thunderstorms.
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, more than 200 tornadoes form every year during the first month of meteorological summer, with many impacting the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska.
In addition to tornadoes, the country annually sees around 3,100 reports of damaging winds, which can occur in nearly any state in the Lower 48.
Until a recent pattern shift, communities across the southern tier of the country had been subject to non-stop rounds of severe weather, which was unusual considering the time of year.
Alongside bouts of severe weather, many areas also reported flooding, which in some cases in Oklahoma and Texas occurred as drivers were caught off guard in their vehicles.
According to NWS forecasters, just 6 inches of fast-moving water can knock an adult off their feet, and a foot of floodwater can carry a car away.
Fortunately, the FOX Forecast Center does not believe the current unsettled pattern will lead to widespread flooding concerns, as the thunderstorms’ forward momentum will be rather quick and more than two-thirds of the region is considered unusually dry.
HOW ABSENCE OF EL NIÑO, LA NIÑA COULD INFLUENCE ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
The general pattern could feature mesoscale convective systems (MCS), which can travel hundreds of miles across the northern tier of the country.
The formation of an MCS usually happens during the warmer months when nighttime temperatures are sufficient to aid in thunderstorm development, without relying solely on daytime heating.
Once an MCS forms, it can essentially take on a life of its own, generating weather features that help it maintain strength and structure well after initial development.
These weather systems are an important part of climate patterns, as some areas from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest rely on complexes of thunderstorms for more than 50% of their annual rainfall.
Squall lines and derechos are considered to be types of MCS events, which can lead to significant crop damage and billions of dollars in losses.
The post Severe weather returns to its usual threat zone during the early summer appeared first on Fox Weather