Here's what smart people are saying about Trump's ceasefire deal with Iran

Andrew Bishop, head of global policy research at Signum Global Advisors: 'Trump is likely biding his time before a larger offensive'

Bishop wrote in a research note sent to Business Insider that "as of now, our basecase remains that President Trump is likely biding his time before a larger offensive, rather than 'genuinely' agreeing to end the war on Iran's terms."

Bishop wrote that the advisory firm takes this stance because its members believe it is more likely that Trump was looking to de-escalate the conflict and calm markets rather than that he suddenly became "comfortable" with the idea of Iran having long-term veto power over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Whether this proves to have been the case will determine whether today marks the beginning of the end for the war, or a mere delay in further escalation ahead," Bishop wrote.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy: 'Diesel is NO longer likely to reach a record'

In a post on Bluesky, De Haan wrote that, based on current markets, "gas prices could start reversing nationally in 48 hours or so- by a few cents every day."

Gas prices have skyrocketed in the last month as the war produced the largest supply shock to the global oil market in history.

"Diesel prices may lag slightly- but where things stand now, diesel is NO longer likely to reach a record," De Haan wrote. "National average gasoline could fall below $4 in ~1-2 weeks, diesel >$5 in 6-8 weeks."

"Coming days will see volatility as the US/Iran and other parties negotiate," De Haan wrote in a second post. "Iran has signaled safe passage through the Strait for two weeks. Right now: oil prices dropping significantly, and that could lead gas price increases to fade over the next 48 hours before drops then begin."

Joe Kent, former director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center: 'No military solution to the conflict right now'

Kent, who resigned from his post as director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center in March because he opposes the war in Iran, spoke in a video on X on Tuesday night.

He said that in order for the ceasefire to be effective, it is "absolutely critical" that the US remove its offensive military support from Israel to prevent the nation from continuing to strike Iran and violate the terms of the deal.

Kent said the US is "on the cusp" of being able to fix the energy supply crisis caused by the war. But he said it's crucial to keep in mind that Israel's strategic objective of toppling the Iranian government "works against" the US government's attempts to broker peace.

"We have to understand that there is no military solution to the conflict right now," Kent said.

So far, he said, the military action the US has taken has destabilized the region, strengthened the Iranian government, and threatened energy.

June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities: 'Watch the physical'

While market participants may welcome ships resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz, what happens next will be key.

An important question is "which ships will be going back IN to take fresh cargoes back out," Goh wrote in a post on X.

A two-week ceasefire is likely too short to establish a sustained rebound in inbound traffic, she added.

Despite gyrations in crude futures, the divergence between paper and physical oil prices is widening.

The benchmark Dated Brent physical oil price assessed by S&P Global has surged to its highest level since 2008, signaling tight supply in the real-world market.

"Watch the physical," Goh wrote.

Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG: 'Bouts of volatility are more likely than not'

Wan cautioned that securing a durable deal could be difficult given that Iran's demands "seem hard for different parties, including Israel and the Gulf states, to accept."

"As such, we think any agreement on paper will likely be an extremely unstable equilibrium, and we think further meaningful bouts of volatility are more likely than not moving forward," Wan wrote in a Wednesday note.

Key questions also remain over what concessions Iran might offer in return. Even in the event of a breakthrough, energy markets may not stabilize immediately.

If the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen right away, it would take time for energy flows to normalize due to earlier production shutdowns and the slow restart of oil and gas infrastructure, Wan said.

Shipping constraints and risk aversion among insurers are also likely to delay a full recovery.

Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association: 'No way the airlines can absorb it'

A temporary ceasefire may offer some short-term relief to energy markets, but airlines are still facing higher fuel costs.

"The reality of it is with an increase like that, there's no way the airlines can absorb it," Walsh told CNBC.

Carriers may raise fares or cut capacity to cope with the pressure, he said.

The situation is particularly concerning for Asia, as about 80% of the region's jet fuel supply comes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, "demand for flying remains very strong," he said.

Ilan Goldenberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Policy Officer at J Street: 'Major damage' to the global economy

Goldenberg, the Senior Vice President and Chief Policy Officer at J Street and a former senior Middle East advisor at the White House's National Security Council, said he was "thankful" for the ceasefire and that it was "the right move."

But he said that, if it holds, the war would still end as a "strategic disaster."

Goldenberg shared a "scorecard" of the conflict in an X post on Wednesday, saying Iran retains key advantages, including highly enriched uranium, intact proxy networks in the region, and a missile and drone arsenal that has proven resilient under US and Israeli pressure.

He added that the war has already caused "major damage" to the global economy, strained US alliances in the Gulf and Europe, and could leave Israel more isolated.

"Region: as unstable as ever," Goldenberg wrote, adding the conflict may ultimately require a greater US commitment and leave Washington less prepared for other global challenges.

Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory firm deVere Group: 'The rally is getting ahead of reality'

Green said the sharp rebound in equities and drop in oil prices suggest investors are pricing in a "clean de-escalation" — a view he called overly optimistic.

"A 15% collapse in oil in less than a week and a near 4% jump in European equities tells you exactly what markets are doing," Green said.

He pointed to the temporary and conditional nature of the ceasefire, saying that the Strait of Hormuz — which carries roughly 20% of global oil flows — "effectively" remains under Iran's influence.

"This is a 14-day window, not a permanent policy shift," he said. "That's not stability."

Green also warned of a "disconnect between price action and reality," citing ongoing regional tensions, continued military activity, and uncertainty around shipping conditions.

"The current rally is being driven by relief, not resolution," he said. "The rally is getting ahead of reality."

Stephen Dover, chief market strategist and head of the Franklin Templeton Institute: Energy 'prices probably won't fall quickly'

Dover said markets are interpreting the ceasefire primarily as a de-escalation of a major supply shock, with oil prices falling and equities rising in response.

But he cautioned that the move reflects the unwinding of a "war premium," rather than confidence that the conflict is resolved.

"The message is 'less bad,' not 'problem solved,'" Dover wrote in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday, adding the ceasefire is temporary and tied to conditions like the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

While he said lower energy prices could ease inflation pressures, he said damage to energy infrastructure and ongoing risks to shipping mean supply disruptions may persist.

That "means that oil, natural gas and fertilizer prices probably won't fall quickly back to pre-war levels," he added.

Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard: The war's impact will likely have a 'long tail'

Blitz, managing director of global macro and strategy and chief US economist at TS Lombard, said the ceasefire may help reverse the immediate energy shock and rally markets — but warned the broader consequences are far from over.

In a research note on Wednesday, Blitz said the war's impact will likely have a "long tail," with lasting effects on inflation, government spending, and global financial conditions.

While falling oil prices could support growth in the near term, he cautioned that higher defense spending and supply disruptions could keep inflation elevated over the next several quarters.

He also said US Treasury yields could fall in the short term — with the 10-year yield potentially dropping to around 4.2% in the coming weeks — even as longer-term pressures build.

"The war will have a long tail impact on financing the US budget, inflation and global relationships generally," Blitz wrote.

Andreas Krieg, Gulf specialist at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King's College London: 'The worst strategic defeat for the US since Vietnam'

Krieg said that the deal would help Iran rebuild its military capabilities within a year if it evolves into a longer-term agreement.

"It is the worst strategic defeat for the US since Vietnam and possibly the worst strategic defeat for Israel ever," he wrote in an X post on Wednesday.

He also said that a more belligerent and less pragmatic Iranian leadership could emerge, adding that shipping will be Iran's "new strategic lever" in its toolbox.

"The Axis of Resistance will likely be rebuilt with the main target Israel, which will be stuck in a perpetual war of mowing lawns," he wrote.]

Correction: April 8, 2026 — An earlier version of this story misstated the title of Ilan Goldenberg. He is the Senior Vice President and Chief Policy Officer at J Street.