Growing potential for Invest 92L to intensify into Hurricane Isaias as data reveals its track uncertainty
A tropical depression is likely to form in the southern Gulf this week amid the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since the start of the satellite era. The National Hurricane Center is giving Invest 92L high odds of becoming at least a tropical depression over the next two days.
THE TAKEAWAY
A tropical depression is likely to form in the southern Gulf this week amid the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since 1966, the start of the satellite era, with no hurricanes having formed this year.
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated a brewing tropical disturbance as Invest 92L, and is giving the system high odds of becoming at least a tropical depression over the next two days. From there, how strong this storm becomes and exactly where it tracks still remains an open question.
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The term "invest" is used every hurricane season in the Atlantic and the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, accompanied by a number from 90 to 99 and either the suffix "L," "E" or "C," respectively.
Currently, a massive cold front is draped over Central Florida and is extending across the Gulf, bringing days of heavy rain to the Sunshine State through the workweek.
A storm could develop at the tail end of this front sometime on Thursday or Friday, potentially developing a more defined center that forecasters can track.
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However, Wednesday will be a crucial day in determining this system's future as it begins to interact with more hostile El Niño-driven winds as well as dry air, which have helped suppress the hurricane season in the Atlantic overall.
"A more defined system in the southern Gulf will be able to defend itself from the hostile conditions," the FOX Forecast Center said.
"Some models now are hinting at possibly our first hurricane of the season, but there is still a lot to fine tune as uncertainty remains extremely high."
The FOX Forecast Center said the system could also struggle to develop or remain closer to the coast of Mexico.
Regardless of tropical development, forecasts show another round of heavy rain headed to parts of the Florida and Louisiana coasts by the weekend.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk for parts of the Southeast on Friday and Saturday.
Meanwhile, Gulf water temperatures are currently at their warmest levels on record dating back to 1982. Warm waters are conducive for tropical development.
September ended without a hurricane for the first time in 32 years, despite it being the climatological peak of the season.
If the entire 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends without a hurricane, it would mark the first hurricane-free Atlantic season of the modern era.
Check back for updates on this developing story.
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