Atlantic 2026 hurricane season could see major impacts from potentially strong El Niño
A major shift in the global climate pattern is underway as the tropical Pacific starts to transition out of a fading La Niña and toward a potential El Niño later this year. Some forecast models suggest a strong or very strong El Niño will form, which could have major implications for the Atlantic hurricane season.
A major shift in the global climate pattern is underway as the tropical Pacific starts to transition out of a fading La Niña and toward a potential El Niño later this year.
Some forecast models suggest a strong or very strong El Niño will form, which could have major implications for the Atlantic hurricane season.
The latest outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute (IRI) indicate the La Niña pattern is now breaking down, with neutral conditions likely to take over within the next month.
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NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch as conditions are expected to develop within the next six months.
A large pool of warm water beneath the surface of the Pacific is moving east, which is often a sign that surface temperatures could warm quickly in the months ahead.
There's currently about a 62% chance that El Niño develops between June and August, though some global models suggest it could become a strong event by late summer or early fall.
Some of the more aggressive long-range models are leaning toward a strong outcome. A number of these projections point to about an 80 to 90% chance of a strong El Niño, with a few even suggesting a very strong event.
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This outlook is supported by weakening trade winds across the Pacific, which normally help keep warm water locked into the western part of the ocean.
As those winds weaken or reverse, warm water can spread east, which would reinforce the warming pattern.
This potential shift has important implications for the Atlantic hurricane season. In most cases, El Niño acts to suppress hurricane activity by increasing wind shear over the Atlantic. What that means is stronger winds higher in the atmosphere can disrupt developing storms, making it harder for them to organize and strengthen.
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El Niño also tends to promote more stable air, which further limits storm development, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
But this year might not be so straightforward. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic remain near or slightly above average, which provides fuel for storms.
That sets up a bit of a battle between unfavorable wind conditions caused by El Niño and the warmer ocean waters that help storms grow.
During the 2023 hurricane season, a similar event occurred and in that case, the record warm sea surface temperatures offset the negative impacts from El Niño.
While the events are seemingly similar, hurricane season is defined by much more than just El Niño or La Niña. Even in years with a strong El Niño, the risk is never zero.
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Historically, these patterns have been associated with fewer storms overall, but it only takes one to create major impacts.
That said, if some of the more aggressive forecasts pan out, it may be enough to at least bring the number of named storms and hurricanes down to below average.
Timing will be key. If El Niño develops quickly by mid-summer, it could limit activity during peak hurricane season. If the transition is slower, there may still be a window for early-season storms in June and July.
The IRI — which aggregates nearly 20 different climate forecast models from around the world — will release a visual summary of its latest forecast on Thursday.
As we move through the spring and forecasting confidence improves, we'll get a clearer picture of how strong this El Niño may become and what it could mean for this year's hurricane season.
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