Polar vortex disruption could be earliest on record, but El Niño impact may keep US warm
A polar vortex disruption could develop over the Arctic Sunday, but immediate U.S. cold is unlikely as El Niño favors warmer weather through November.
THE TAKEAWAY
A major disruption of the polar vortex is brewing high above the Arctic atmosphere, and if forecasts hold, it could be the earliest on record.
However, the FOX Forecast Center said the unusual early-season event is unlikely to bring immediate Arctic cold to the United States.
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Forecast models indicate the powerful winds encircling the polar region could reverse direction as soon as Sunday.
If the reversal occurs, it would mark the earliest major polar vortex disruption on record.
The polar vortex is a large area of cold air and low pressure in the stratosphere above the Arctic. When it weakens or shifts, colder air can eventually spill southward — but those impacts do not happen overnight.
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"Changes in the stratosphere do not translate into colder weather at the surface overnight," the FOX Forecast Center said. "It can take several weeks for those changes to work their way down and influence the jet stream and larger weather patterns."
Any potential influence on North American weather would be more likely later in November or during December. Even then, a disrupted polar vortex does not guarantee widespread or prolonged cold across the U.S.
Current forecasts show the coldest air pooling across Eastern Europe and Siberia, while much of North America remains warmer than average.
The Climate Prediction Center’s long-range outlook favors above-average temperatures across much of the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.
Brief cold spells remain possible, but the overall pattern points toward a milder-than-average November.
El Niño is also expected to shape the weather pattern across North America. A stronger, more active Pacific jet stream could repeatedly transport mild Pacific air across the country, making it more difficult for Arctic air to settle in for an extended period.
That means the early polar vortex disruption may not immediately translate to a colder start to winter.
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For now, the FOX Forecast Center said the polar vortex remains very weak, while the United States is expected to remain mostly mild through November.
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