Odds increase again for development of brewing Super El Niño by this fall, reaching potential strongest ever
A historically strong El Niño is likely to develop by this fall, just after the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
A historically strong El Niño is likely to develop by this fall, just after the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. In its latest update released Thursday, NOAA said there is an 81% chance that this El Niño will rank among the strongest on record this fall, up from a 63% chance in its June outlook.
El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
It's typically associated with fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic.
El Niño describes warmer than average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Niña describes colder than average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures are close to average.
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE?
During El Niño, above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean alter the position and strength of the subtropical jet stream. It's typically more robust and extends well into the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean. Think of the subtropical jet stream as a belt of very fast winds high in the atmosphere.
It's these strong winds that hinder tropical development in the Atlantic during an El Niño. Hurricanes like very calm conditions.
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, the script is completely flipped.
EL NIÑO SURGES TOWARD 'MONSTER' TERRITORY, SIGNALING AN ACTIVE WINTER FOR EAST AND WEST COASTS
"Because El Niño concentrates its deepest pool of warm water and lowest wind shear across the central and eastern Pacific, it transforms that basin into a hyper-fueled engine for major hurricanes and monster typhoons," the FOX Forecast Center said.
This comes as moderate El Niño conditions are already present in the central Pacific.
Colorado State University (CSU), which pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts, also lowered its Atlantic hurricane season forecast again Wednesday, citing the high likelihood that El Niño will strengthen to very strong levels during the climatological peak of the season, from mid-August to mid-October.
In its latest update, NOAA said this historically strong El Niño could arrive between October and December with a 97% chance of lasting through next spring.
Outside its impact on hurricane season, El Niño also has a strong effect on winter weather across the Lower 48.
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