Massive cross-country storm to bring severe weather, heavy rain and damaging wind gusts to 35+ states
A massive cross-country storm is set to impact more than 35 states, bringing severe weather, heavy rain and strong winds across the Central and Southern Plains before moving toward the East Coast later this week.
THE TAKEAWAY
A massive cross-country storm is set to impact more than 35 states, bringing severe weather, heavy rain and strong winds across the Central and Southern Plains before moving toward the East Coast later this week.
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The storm is drawing deep tropical moisture north from the Pacific, fueling rounds of heavy precipitation across the Four Corners region.
As the system pushes east, a strengthening area of low pressure and an advancing cold front will bring severe thunderstorms, damaging winds and additional rainfall to the Plains and Midwest before reaching the Northeast later in the week.
The storm could also create travel disruptions across multiple regions, with flooding, strong wind gusts and heavy mountain snow adding to the impacts.
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The storm is already bringing heavy rain to parts of the Southwest and Four Corners region, including Arizona, southern Utah, northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado, where ongoing flooding is threatening communities.
Mandatory evacuations are in place for parts of the region as rapidly rising water levels threaten homes, roads and businesses. In Sedona, Arizona, portions of the city were urged to evacuate as Oak Creek continued to rise. The creek has reached a record level, raising concerns about major flooding.
The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk across more than 65,000 square miles — roughly the size of Washington state — encompassing nearly all of central and northern Arizona and putting more than four million people at risk.
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Across central and northern Arizona into southern Utah, the heaviest rainfall is expected along and north of the Mogollon Rim, including the high country around Flagstaff.
Flagstaff has already received 5.69 inches of rain in October and is expected to see additional rainfall as the storm continues through Monday morning.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible, with isolated amounts approaching 6 inches.
Southwest Colorado is also getting drenched, particularly near the San Juan Mountains. Mandatory evacuations were issued for homes and properties in Pagosa Springs on Saturday, according to town officials.
A Particularly Dangerous Situation Flood Warning is in effect for the San Juan River near Pagosa Springs, Colorado. The river is forecast to rise to around 19 to 20 feet late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
The flooding has prompted additional concerns for residents. The town of Pagosa Springs is advising residents that sewage is being discharged into the San Juan River and urging people to stay away from the water while officials monitor conditions.
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Meanwhile, heavy runoff will continue flowing into rivers and drainage systems across the region, keeping water levels elevated into early next week.
Rain is not the only concern across the Southwest. While lower elevations are dealing with heavy rainfall and flooding, colder air moving into the region will bring snow to higher elevations.
The highest elevations of the San Juan, Sawatch, Wasatch and Uinta ranges could receive more than a foot of wet, heavy snow.
Southwest Colorado's mountain passes could see 12 to 18 inches, with 4 to 10 inches possible across other high-elevation areas.
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The heavy, wet snow could bring down tree limbs and cause power disruptions while creating slippery travel conditions across mountain passes. Combined with ongoing flooding, the additional snow could make some areas difficult to access.
Strong winds will add to the already dangerous conditions. Southwesterly winds could gust between 30 and 50 mph Sunday across mountain ridges.
Winds will then shift to the northwest Monday, with similar gusts possible. Blowing snow could reduce visibility on mountain roads, while blowing dust may affect parts of the desert in the Southwest.
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While flooding and mountain snow remain major concerns across the Southwest, the storm is expected to shift east of the Rockies on Monday, bringing a renewed threat of severe thunderstorms, damaging winds and heavy rain to the Central and Southern Plains.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and north Texas as a cold front and dryline push through the region.
Warm, humid air ahead of the system will fuel the storms, while strong winds will support organized thunderstorm development.
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The FOX Forecast Center said these storms could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 out of 5 severe storm risk across parts of south-central and eastern Kansas, western and central Oklahoma and north Texas.
The storms are expected to merge into a line and move east across Oklahoma, Kansas and north Texas by Monday evening and into the overnight hours.
The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, but a few tornadoes could still develop. The severe threat will gradually decrease as the storms move east.
On Tuesday, the cold front will move into the Deep South, bringing the threat of damaging winds to states including Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama.
The storm will move toward the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, bringing gusty winds and periods of heavy rain to the region.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible from eastern Kansas and Nebraska through Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The strong winds could create hazardous travel conditions and lead to potential delays.
Heavy rain is expected to spread across Texas and Oklahoma through Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin as moisture from the South moves north.
Many locations could receive 1 to 2 inches of rain or more.
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The Weather Prediction Center has placed these areas under a Level 1 out of 4 excessive rainfall risk across a dozen states.
Widespread severe flooding is not currently expected, but periods of heavy rain could lead to localized flooding in Omaha, Des Moines and Minneapolis.
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The storm will move toward the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic by midweek before tracking toward the Northeast, where heavy rain is expected to impact the region.
Rain should begin spreading into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday before reaching the I-95 corridor around Thursday or Friday.
The system may then slow down near the Great Lakes as a secondary area of low pressure develops or strengthens along the East Coast. This could draw moisture inland and extend the period of rain through Friday night and into early Saturday.
Widespread rainfall totals of more than an inch are possible across the Northeast, with localized amounts approaching 2 inches from central Pennsylvania and Maryland through the New York City area and southern New England.
The downpours could cause minor flooding across the region.
Stay with FOX Weather as this story continues to unfold.
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