ITB Berlin Shock Warning: Tourism Must Prepare for War, Crisis and a New Global Power Order

The global tourism industry is entering an era defined by geopolitical volatility, shifting power dynamics and rising security risks, according to former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer. Speaking at ITB Berlin 2026, Fischer delivered a stark message to travel leaders: the industry must adapt quickly to a world where uncertainty, conflict and instability are becoming permanent features rather than temporary disruptions.

During his keynote address, Fischer argued that the international system built on rules and multilateral cooperation is fading. In its place, he suggested, a new geopolitical landscape is emerging in which power is concentrated among a few dominant states. In this evolving order, the United States and China are likely to remain the primary global actors, with India potentially joining them as a third strategic force.

For the travel industry, this transformation carries significant implications. Tourism has long depended on stable international relations, predictable travel conditions and the perception of safety. However, Fischer warned that industry leaders must recognise that global instability will increasingly shape the environment in which tourism operates.

The End of a Predictable Global Order

Fischer described the current geopolitical transition as a shift away from the rules-based system that governed international relations after the Cold War. Instead of shared rules and institutions providing stability, global politics is moving toward a landscape where power and influence determine outcomes.

Such changes, he argued, create a more complex environment for industries dependent on cross-border mobility. Tourism in particular relies on trust, open borders and safe travel corridors.

Yet Fischer emphasised that the world has never been free from crises. Conflicts, disasters and political upheavals have always existed. What is changing today is the frequency and intensity of such disruptions.

For tourism professionals, the challenge lies not in preventing every crisis but in developing the capacity to respond effectively when crises occur.

Tourism Must Become More Strategic

Fischer urged travel industry leaders to adopt a more strategic approach to global risks. Instead of reacting to crises after they occur, tourism organisations should anticipate potential disruptions and integrate crisis management into their long-term planning.

He suggested that the travel sector could even play a role in diplomacy by helping maintain dialogue and cooperation between regions. Tourism, by connecting cultures and facilitating international exchange, has historically contributed to peaceful relations.

In the future, Fischer believes tourism organisations may need to become more actively involved in shaping policies that support stability and security.

Travellers Will Continue to Explore the World

Despite his cautionary message, Fischer offered reassurance on one important point: people will not stop travelling.

Human curiosity and the desire to explore new cultures remain powerful drivers of tourism. Even in periods of geopolitical tension, travellers continue to seek new destinations and experiences.

However, Fischer stressed that safety will remain a decisive factor in travel decisions. Tourists are unlikely to choose destinations where they perceive serious personal risk.

In one of the most striking moments of his speech, Fischer referenced recent attacks linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Iranian drone activity targeting hotels in parts of the Gulf region, he said, demonstrates how quickly geopolitical tensions can affect tourism infrastructure.

Travellers may accept certain inconveniences, but they are unlikely to tolerate situations that place their safety in danger.

Middle East Conflict Raises New Concerns

Fischer addressed the current conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, which has raised concerns about broader instability across the Middle East.

According to Fischer, the military escalation did not come as a surprise. He said that developments in recent diplomatic interactions had already signalled the possibility of military action.

However, predicting the ultimate consequences of the conflict remains difficult. Fischer expressed uncertainty about whether the outcome would bring stability or further instability to the region.

His concerns extend beyond the immediate conflict. Iran’s internal political dynamics and diverse ethnic composition could create additional challenges if the current governing system were to collapse. In such a scenario, Fischer warned, the country could face internal conflict or fragmentation.

This possibility, he said, could destabilise not only Iran but also neighbouring regions, including the Gulf states that play a central role in global tourism.

Learning from Past Crises

Fischer also reflected on previous global disasters that exposed weaknesses in crisis response systems.

One example he cited was the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami that struck Thailand and other parts of Asia on Christmas Day in 2004. At the time, Fischer was serving as Germany’s foreign minister.

He recalled that the disaster revealed how unprepared many institutions were to handle such emergencies. Embassies, consulates and tourism authorities struggled to coordinate assistance for travellers because many officials were on holiday.

The experience highlighted the importance of preparedness and rapid response mechanisms.

For the tourism industry, Fischer believes that crisis management must become a core component of operational planning. Travel companies should develop systems capable of responding quickly to emergencies, providing accurate information and supporting travellers in affected regions.

Building Resilience in a Changing World

The key message from Fischer’s address is that resilience will become one of the most valuable assets in the travel industry.

Resilience involves more than simply recovering from disruptions. It requires anticipating risks, preparing contingency plans and maintaining flexibility in the face of uncertainty.

Airlines, tour operators, hotels and destination authorities must collaborate closely to ensure that travellers receive clear guidance and reliable support during crises.

At the same time, governments and tourism organisations must strengthen communication channels that allow rapid coordination between public authorities and private sector operators.

Tourism’s Future Depends on Adaptation

As global conditions evolve, the tourism industry will need to balance opportunity with caution. Technological innovation, growing middle classes and rising demand for international travel will continue to create new possibilities.

Yet geopolitical tensions, environmental challenges and security risks will also shape the industry’s trajectory.

Fischer’s message at ITB Berlin 2026 serves as a reminder that tourism cannot operate in isolation from global events. Instead, it must develop the strategic awareness and adaptability needed to navigate a more unpredictable world.

While travellers will always seek new destinations, they will also demand greater assurance that their journeys are safe and responsibly managed.

For tourism leaders, the challenge now is to build an industry capable not only of attracting visitors but also of protecting them in an increasingly complex global environment.

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