Lowell intensifies back to monster Category 4 hurricane ahead of turn toward Hawaii

THE TAKEAWAY

HONOLULU — Powerful Hurricane Lowell is forecast to make a dramatic turn in the Pacific, raising the threat of intense winds and rain on Hawaii as the monster hurricane passes the western islands early next week.

As Hurricane Lowell churns across the open Pacific, residents and visitors are closely monitoring the powerful storm as shifting atmospheric conditions are expected to steer it sharply northward on a dangerous track toward the western Hawaiian Islands, threatening damaging winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding and dangerous surf.

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With potential storm impacts just days away, Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency, and said, "We encourage everyone to remain prepared and continue following official weather updates."

Though Lowell has weakened from its peak intensity as a Category 5 storm, it's still a powerful Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and a minimum central pressure of 926 MB. Lowell is continuing to head due west at 8 mph and is about 610 miles south of Lihue, Kaua'i.

Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that Lowell has strengthened quickly, pushing the hurricane to Category 4 status after weakening to Category 3. 

According to the FOX Forecast Center, although most forecast models keep the storm west of Hawaii, significant impacts are possible early next week, including huge waves and strong wind gusts and heavy rain on Kauaʻi.

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However, a direct impact on Kauaʻi still cannot be ruled out, although unlikely, FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said Friday morning.

If Lowell does indeed stay farther west of the islands, it will act more like a Kona Low, delivering strong wind gusts and heavy rain along the southern shores of Kauaʻi and Oahu beginning Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

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The Big Island could see rain beginning Sunday night and heavy rain is expected to arrive across all the islands Monday morning as Lowell's outer bands lash the state.

"Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, for Kauai and the Big Island," the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Friday. 

"For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible."

According to the NHC, Lowell is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Monday morning before weakening, though it is expected to maintain hurricane strength into Tuesday as it moves near the western Hawaiian islands.

Hurricane Lowell is expected to begin to pick up speed Monday, which could limit some of the storm's worst impacts, with the storm clearing the islands sometime Tuesday.

After forming in the Eastern Pacific and earning its name on Aug. 27, Lowell steadily strengthened as it churned across the open ocean before exploding in intensity Wednesday.

In just 24 hours, its maximum sustained winds surged by 70 mph — from 90 mph to a peak of 160 mph — making Lowell the first Category 5 hurricane in the Central Pacific since Walaka in October 2018.

Sometime over the weekend, Hurricane Lowell is forecast to curve back toward the Aloha State due to an unfavorable atmospheric pattern.

A dip in the upper atmosphere over the Pacific is expected to weaken the ridge steering Lowell westward, allowing the hurricane to curve sharply northward and pass near or west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands early next week.

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said, "We are seeing a dip in the jet stream is really diving down near Hawaii, and that's exactly what's going to grab Lowell and pull it north."

Exactly when and the exact angle at which Lowell makes its turn is still uncertain but will determine how close the storm will get to the islands.

"Lowell's forward speed will slow significantly as it eases into the sharp turn to the north. Whenever a tropical system is moving slowly, its future track becomes more uncertain." Norcross added.

"Whenever a tropical system is moving slowly, its future track becomes more uncertain."

Hawaii, which is generally insulated from tropical threats, is no stranger to powerful tropical systems this hurricane season.

Hurricane Lala brought more than 3 feet of rain to parts of Hawaii Island when it passed just south of the Big Island on Aug. 15. Tropical Storm Moke followed shortly afterward and now Lowell could bring the islands their most significant tropical impacts of the season.

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The Pacific is raging with tropical activity, with Lowell among three hurricanes churning simultaneously as a brewing Super El Niño supercharges the Central and Eastern Pacific. El Niño is warming ocean waters and creating atmospheric conditions favorable for powerful storms in the basin.

"Our state is still recovering from Lala, and we are not waiting for another storm to get close before preparing," Gov. Green said.

On Sept. 2, Hawaii Gov. Josh Green issued a statewide emergency proclamation as the powerful tropical systems churned across the Pacific, paying specific attention to Lowell.

The proclamation activates the state’s major disaster fund, authorizes the Hawaii National Guard to respond if needed, directs state agencies to support emergency operations and requires utilities and other critical infrastructure operators to safeguard their system.

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Additionally, emergency officials in Honolulu and Kauaʻi and Maui counties are coordinating with state and federal partners while urging residents to replenish supplies, review emergency plans, secure loose outdoor objects and monitor official alerts.

This is an extremely powerful hurricane, and we are watching it very closely," Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi said. "I’m asking everyone on Oʻahu to stay vigilant, follow the forecast and make sure you and your family are prepared. Don’t wait until the weekend. Take advantage of these extra days and get ready now."

Stay with FOX Weather for the latest updates on Hurricane Lowell’s track, intensity and future impacts.

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