China Surges While US, Brazil, Canada, and Japan Face Alarming Sharp Declines in Europe’s Long-Haul Travel Market This Year as Surging Costs, Mounting Global Tensions, and Volatile Consumer Behavior Reshape International Tourism Demand

Europe‘s long-haul travel business this year is seeing a transformative change as China sees a strong surge in overseas travel driven by economic recovery and changed consumer attitudes, but the US, Brazil, Canada, and Japan faced steep declines wrought by record-high travel expenses, rising world tensions, and increasingly volatile consumer sentiment. This split reflects how growing financial burdens and geo-political uncertainty are transforming global tourism consumption, with Europe’s inbound business both extremely dynamic and extremely fragmented.

Europe’s long-haul travel outlook for summer 2025 is taking a highly contrasting turn, driven by fluctuating economic conditions, changing traveler preferences, and ongoing global political instability. While global tourism demonstrates resilience, the complex interplay of inflation, currency fluctuations, and international tensions continues to weigh heavily on travelers’ decisions. The latest findings from the Long-Haul Travel Barometer, published by the European Travel Commission (ETC) in partnership with Eurail BV, paint a nuanced picture of international travel sentiment towards Europe.

Global Appetite for European Travel Softens Slightly

Across major long-haul markets, the proportion of travelers planning overseas trips during the core travel window of May to August 2025 has slipped marginally. Overall, fifty-seven percent of respondents indicated plans for long-haul travel in this period — a modest one percent dip compared to 2024. More notably, the share of those specifically targeting Europe has decreased from forty-one percent last year to thirty-nine percent in 2025.

The data reveals that while many international travelers remain enthusiastic about visiting Europe, financial pressures and geopolitical anxieties are reshaping the decision-making process. Countries such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Japan are seeing a pronounced drop in interest, even as Chinese demand for European travel rises dramatically.

US Travel Sentiment Experiences Noticeable Weakening

In the United States, Europe remains a popular destination, but the appeal is fading under the strain of rising travel costs and mounting political concerns. Only thirty-three percent of American travelers expressed intentions to visit Europe this summer, marking a significant decrease of seven percent from the previous year’s levels. This downturn coincides with growing unease about the global perception of the United States and apprehensions regarding international political developments. American travelers are also facing stiffer economic headwinds, with inflation and currency fluctuations making European vacations increasingly expensive.

For many US travelers, affordability now stands as the most decisive barrier. More than half of respondents cited high costs as the leading reason for deferring European travel plans, reflecting the broader sensitivity to travel expenses as household budgets tighten.

China Emerges as the Bright Spot in European Travel Demand

In stark contrast, China is emerging as a powerhouse for European tourism in 2025. Bolstered by a revitalized economy and evolving consumer preferences, seventy-two percent of surveyed Chinese travelers indicated plans to visit Europe this summer. This represents an impressive ten percent increase year-on-year, making China the standout market in the global long-haul tourism landscape.

This resurgence is being driven by a growing appetite among Chinese consumers for international cultural experiences, luxury shopping, and multi-country itineraries that Europe uniquely offers. China’s outbound tourism sector, after years of pandemic-related restrictions, is now fueling strong momentum as pent-up demand translates into robust travel bookings.

Brazil and Canada See Modest Yet Concerning Declines

Brazil, traditionally one of Europe’s stronger long-haul source markets, is also witnessing a downward shift in sentiment. Travel intention to Europe among Brazilian respondents has dropped by six percent, with forty-five percent now planning European vacations this summer. While younger and higher-income Brazilians remain relatively enthusiastic, widespread economic uncertainties and fluctuating exchange rates are undermining broader market confidence.

Similarly, Canada’s outlook for European travel in 2025 has softened. Thirty-seven percent of Canadian respondents are considering European vacations, reflecting a five percent decline compared to 2024. Although the Canadian dollar remains relatively stable, Canadians are increasingly cautious amid global tensions and concerns over affordability, making careful budgeting a priority for many households.

Japan’s Travel Confidence Hits Historic Low

Japanese travelers are demonstrating the lowest appetite for European travel among all surveyed markets. Only thirteen percent of Japanese respondents reported plans to visit Europe this summer, representing a five percent decline from last year. Japan’s ongoing struggle with a weakened yen, coupled with subdued domestic consumer confidence, is contributing to particularly soft demand for long-haul travel.

Limited vacation availability, cultural preferences for domestic or regional travel, and continued economic headwinds are also driving Japanese tourists to postpone or reconsider costly European itineraries.

South Korea Remains Steady but Conservative

South Korea offers a more stable but modest outlook for European travel. Approximately thirty percent of Korean respondents expressed interest in visiting Europe, with preferences primarily focused on iconic destinations such as France, Spain, and Italy. While this figure represents stable sentiment year-over-year, it underscores the cautious approach many South Korean travelers continue to adopt amid lingering global uncertainties.

Australia Shows Signs of Recovery

Amid the mixed global picture, Australia has emerged as one of the few bright spots aside from China. Around four in ten Australian travelers are now planning European trips for this summer, reflecting a rise of three percent compared to last year’s figures. Favorable exchange rates, a strong economy, and increasing consumer confidence have all contributed to this rebound, positioning Australia as a market with growing outbound travel potential to Europe in 2025.

Financial Constraints Dominate Travel Barriers Globally

Across nearly all surveyed markets, high travel costs continue to be the dominant factor suppressing demand for European vacations. Nearly half of respondents who are not planning a trip to Europe this summer cited affordability as the primary obstacle, reflecting a seven percent increase from the previous year.

Inflationary pressures, volatile exchange rates, and growing price sensitivity are driving travelers to reconsider expensive long-haul itineraries. In the United States and Brazil in particular, cost sensitivity is now at its highest levels, with over fifty percent of respondents pointing to unaffordable prices as their key deterrent.

While limited vacation time and preferences for closer-to-home trips remain important factors, especially in Japan, South Korea, and Australia, financial considerations are playing an increasingly central role across all markets.

Geopolitical Concerns Show Some Improvement

One positive development in the 2025 travel sentiment data is the declining impact of geopolitical instability related to the Russo-Ukrainian War. Only four percent of respondents cited the conflict as a factor in their decision to avoid European travel, suggesting that fears surrounding the war’s impact on safety and logistics have diminished somewhat as travelers adjust to the evolving situation.

However, broader global tensions, including trade disputes, political unrest, and shifting international alliances, continue to contribute to general unease among travelers, particularly in the US and parts of Asia.

Travelers Shift Budgets and Itineraries

Alongside softening overall demand, travel behavior is also undergoing notable shifts in 2025. More travelers are planning earlier departures within the summer season. While July and August continue to be the busiest months, capturing forty-six percent of bookings, interest in May and June travel has surged from twenty-four percent in 2024 to thirty-four percent this year. This reflects a growing preference for avoiding peak-season crowds and securing more affordable pricing by traveling earlier.

Spending patterns are also evolving. The proportion of travelers expecting to spend more than two hundred euros per day on their European trips has declined by eleven percent. Meanwhile, the share of travelers budgeting between one hundred and two hundred euros per day has risen to forty percent, suggesting that even among those still traveling, cost-consciousness remains a driving force.

Dining, Experiences, and Transport Remain Top Priorities

Despite budget adjustments, travelers continue to prioritize dining, with sixty-five percent of respondents identifying food and beverage experiences as their top spending category. Tourist attractions, guided experiences, and shopping also remain highly valued.

Transport budgets remain significant, with forty-one percent of respondents allocating substantial portions of their travel budget to flights, trains, and multi-country travel logistics. This likely reflects the continued popularity of rail and air-based multi-destination itineraries that Europe is uniquely positioned to offer.

Europe Faces Complex Recovery in Long-Haul Tourism

As the 2025 summer season approaches, Europe’s long-haul tourism sector faces a complicated recovery path. On one hand, China and Australia are driving robust new demand, fueled by improving economies and changing consumer aspirations. On the other, key traditional source markets such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, Japan, and South Korea are showing more cautious or declining interest, largely driven by financial strain and broader global uncertainty.

For European destinations, adapting to these market shifts will require strategic marketing, flexible pricing models, and enhanced promotion of lesser-known destinations that offer strong value propositions. Destination management organizations may also need to respond to earlier seasonal demand and evolving consumer expectations around cost, flexibility, and personalized experiences.

The booming economic revival and changed consumer behavior in China are propelling a surge in demand for travel from Europe, but rising costs, global uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence in the US, Brazil, Canada, and Japan are pushing sharply lower departures from these markets, transforming Europe’s long-haul tourist market.

The 2025 Long-Haul Travel Barometer highlights both opportunities and challenges for Europe’s tourism sector as global conditions reshape long-haul travel patterns. While China’s remarkable resurgence fuels optimism, financial pressures and geopolitical anxieties continue to dampen enthusiasm across several major long-haul markets. Europe’s ability to navigate this complex environment will define its international tourism performance throughout the year ahead.

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