Bryan Norcross: A tropics update plus the question: should the nor'easter have been named?
The nor'easter produced winds that gusted near hurricane force and major coastal damage from the Carolinas to New England. So should the storm have gotten a name?
The nor'easter produced winds that gusted near hurricane force and major coastal damage from the Carolinas to New England. So should the storm have gotten a name?
My answers are no and yes.
NOR'EASTER TURNS DEADLY AS STORM LASHES THE EAST COAST WITH MORE DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING, VIOLENT WINDS
So no, the National Hurricane Center should not have taken over the forecasting and communications surrounding the nor'easter. It was not a tropical system. It was a non-tropical storm technically called a warm seclusion – the mature stage of an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone. They happen all the time.
If the storm had lingered over the warm ocean water off Virginia and Maryland, it likely would have transitioned into a subtropical or tropical storm and received a tropical name. But that didn't happen, and it wasn't expected to happen.
It's a completely separate question, however, whether communications would have been better if the storm were named. The world full of evidence says it would have. In Central Europe, storms have been named since the mid-1950s. More recently, groups of European nations have gotten together to come up with naming schemes for their regions.
The British and Irish adopted a naming system in 2015. It gained immediate acceptance. The first significant storm this year in the British Isles will be called "Storm Austen." By putting "Storm" in front of the name, there's no confusion with tropical storms or hurricanes. Later the Netherlands joined the British/Irish group since they are downstream of Great Britain.
The naming scheme doesn't have to be complicated. The criteria can be based on the thresholds the National Weather Service uses to issue warnings. If a storm will generate warnings covering a wide area or enough people, it would get a name.
This would work for nor'easters that produce widespread rain or heavy snow, blizzards, and major Pacific storms that impact the West Coast.
Since the only non-tropical storms that get named would be those that will affect or are affecting land, there's little or no chance that a named winter-type storm would transition into a tropical system. But if by some off chance Storm ABC became Tropical Storm XYZ, so be it.
Just like in tropical world, when a storm gets a name in Europe, people pay more attention. Hopefully we can work towards a system that improves communications and alerting in this country as well.
Short-timer Tropical Storm Hanna is plowing the middle of the Atlantic. It will die out in a day or so.
To its south, Tropical Storm Fay is still chugging along. But its time will be over soon as well.
Otherwise, this hurricaneless Atlantic season shows no signs of getting busier. But as we've seen, storms can still form north of the typical tropical belt in the so-called subtropics. We'll watch the southern Gulf and off the Bahamas moving forward.
Polo made landfall in Baja California Sur with 110 mph winds. Today it will move into the state of Sonora in northern mainland Mexico. The big issue will be flooding. The large slug of tropical moisture is heading toward Arizona and New Mexico where a significant flood threat is already unfolding.
An upper-level disturbance from the Pacific, moving across the Southwest is pulling Polo's moisture north. The disturbance, the moisture, a front, and a separate moisture feed from the Gulf will all combine into a threatening weather pattern from Texas north in the middle of the country. The National Weather Service map shows the threat zone for heavy rain and potential flooding today.
Stay aware of local alerts across the wide region affected by these various systems.
Tropical Storm Rachel is heading for hurricane strength off the Mexican coast. Like Polo, its outer bands will impact the Mexican coast. Watches and warnings have been issued.
HURRICANE NOLO BRINGS DANGEROUS FLOODING TO HAWAII AFTER BEING DOWNGRADED TO CATEGORY 1 STORM
Hurricane Nolo has weakened to Category 3 strength as it loops southwest of Hawaii. It's heading for the 1,200-mile-long string of islands that make up the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument – islands that extend west of the main populated Hawaiian Islands.
The edge of the hurricane will produce brisk winds around the mountains and periods of rain across the western Hawaiian Islands for the next couple of days. Large swells will impact the islands from the southwest. But the worst of the weather will stay well offshore.
There's another disturbance between Hawaii and Mexico that has a high chance of developing into at least a depression. The consensus of the computer forecasts is that it won't amount to much and it will stay away from land.
Strong swells from the Pacific hurricanes and former hurricanes will continue to impact Southern California through today. Dangerous surf and beach erosion are the main issues. Some local coastal flooding is still possible.
The ocean should begin to calm down in time for the hot weather, arriving at the end of the week.
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