Bryan Norcross: Welcome to Hurricane Season 2026

Indications continue to be strong that this hurricane season won't be like the active seasons we've seen lately. Before I talk about El Niño and the factors that are expected to shape this season, let me remind you of two very quiet years in the not-too-distant past.

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE 2026 FORECAST

Hurricane Season 1983 featured only four!! named systems. Storm #1 was Hurricane Alicia, which came ashore over Galveston Island about 1:00 AM on August 18. It raked downtown Houston with hurricane-force winds, which turned roof pebbles and debris into bullets. Glass from high-rise buildings rained down on the streets below. Damage exceeded $10 billion in today's money.

Two of the other three named systems hit the U.S. as tropical storms. Barry was a minimal storm that came ashore south of Melbourne, Florida. Though it went on to strengthen in the Gulf and made landfall as a hurricane in extreme northern Mexico. It was felt in deep South Texas.

Tropical Storm Dean formed off the Southeast coast and made landfall over the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula in late September. The main effect was flooding rain in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

The key takeaway: El Niño years like 1983 tend to produce fewer storms, and the storms that do get going are generally weaker. For most of 1983, the weather pattern over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic was hostile to development. But for a few days, a bubble of conducive conditions can still materialize, and if there's a disturbance in that area – boom – a hurricane can quickly spin up.

Another year with a mostly hostile atmospheric pattern was 1992. It wasn't technically an El Niño year, but lingering effects from the 1991 El Niño and cool water in the tropical Atlantic limited tropical activity.

The spectacular exception to the general hostility that year was the pristine atmospheric bubble that formed over the Bahamas and South Florida during the third week of August. A disturbance happened to be positioned to take advantage of the super-conducive pattern, and Hurricane Andrew was born. Andrew became the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history up to that time — by almost three times.

Notice the similarity to Alicia. Andrew formed late – on August 17. Under hostile atmospheric conditions, it didn’t become a hurricane until exactly 2 days before making landfall as a Category 5. Alicia became a hurricane on August 17, 1983, and made landfall early the next day.

In El Niño years when the atmospheric pattern is generally hostile, the warning time for a bad hurricane can be short.

In a weird coincidence, after Andrew in 1992, the only other U.S. landfall was the "D" storm. Like Dean in 1983, Tropical Storm Danielle also tracked over the Delmarva Peninsula in late September causing severe beach erosion from North Carolina to Maryland.

A strong El Niño continues to look likely. The Pacific Ocean water along the equator south of Hawaii has warmed dramatically, and the weather pattern over the Eastern Pacific supports it getting even warmer.

The amount of warming in that specific box south of Hawaii relative to the temperature of the tropical waters around the planet is what defines the strength of the El Niño.

Before this year, strength was determined simply by measuring how far above normal that patch of the equatorial Pacific water warmed. But now, research shows that comparing it with the tropics all around the world is a better measure of the degree that the El Niño warming impacts global weather patterns.

When the water in that particular part of the Pacific Ocean is extra warm, it forces the air there to rise, creating an altered airflow around the earth and specifically over the tropical Atlantic.

That combination is, on average, a big negative for Atlantic tropical development.

You've no doubt heard about the possibility of a "super El Niño." That's not a technical term, but it means that the ocean in that critical box south of Hawaii is 2°C or more above the average for the global tropical belt.

Whether the El Niño ends up in the strong category (just under 2°C) or in the super (properly called "very strong") category, limiting effects are expected during this hurricane season.

In addition, the tropical Atlantic is quite cool at the moment, although the ocean water closer to Florida, in the Caribbean, and much of the Gulf remains plenty warm.

In 2023, there was a strong El Niño, which was expected to limit tropical development. It had some influence, but an amazing 20 named storms still formed because the Atlantic was super warm. The extra energy overcame El Niño's negative effects. That is not expected to be the situation this year.

A below-average hurricane season seems likely in terms of the number of storms Mother Nature produces in the Atlantic.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern and Central Pacific, the extra-warm water will likely energize more tropical storms and hurricanes than normal. This means that Hawaii's chance of being impacted is elevated this season.

You would think that Mexico would have a higher-than-normal chance of being hit, as well. But in El Niño years, storms tend to head offshore. There are always dramatic exceptions, of course, like Hurricane Otis, which devastated Acapulco in 2023.

So we prepare for an El Niño year just like we do for a season when 20-plus storms are forecast, because an exception coming to your town can't be ruled out.

The Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico are quiet. There is a strong flow of tropical moisture streaming north across the Gulf, which is forecast to continue for the foreseeable future. Upper-level winds are expected to continue to be generally hostile to development.

A broad area of low pressure spanning from the Pacific to the Gulf called the Central American Gyre is forecast to develop, as it normally does in June. Sometimes a piece of that low pressure can break off into the tropical flow and move north into the Gulf. There's no indication of that happening, but it's something to keep an eye on.

It's much more likely that a storm will form from the broad low-pressure area over the waters offshore of southern Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is noting that area for possible development. Plus there’s an area farther offshore, where a storm looks likely to spin up, at least briefly. No threats to land are expected from these systems.

Stay tuned. Stay aware. Be prepared. Dealing with a hurricane is much easier if you have thought things out well before the storm ever thinks about developing.

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