Bryan Norcross: Nor'easter winds down while the Atlantic is mostly quiet as Hurricane Polo heads for landfall
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross discusses the weekend nor'easter, a quiet Atlantic tropics season and a busy Pacific basin, with Hurricane Polo set to make landfall this week.
Updated at 12 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026.
NOR’EASTER UPDATE
The nor'easter just offshore of the New Jersey coast is weakening. The trend will continue through the day as the system slowly moves away from New Jersey tonight.
Where winds are onshore, flooding is still likely at high tide times today. Flooding is still possible in bays, harbors, and sounds where the water is trapped. Midday high tides at the western end of Long Island Sound might affect operations at LaGuardia Airport in New York, for example.
NOR'EASTER TURNS DEADLY AS STORM LASHES THE EAST COAST WITH MORE DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING, VIOLENT WINDS
Stay aware of National Weather Service alerts for your area. Later in the day, as the winds subside, the floodwaters that have been held in place will be able to begin to drain.
The storm behaved essentially as expected. There were widespread impacts, but mostly near the coast where the winds were highest and relentless. There were two phases to the storm. Initially, the strong high-pressure system over Quebec combined with the developing low-pressure area off the Carolinas squeezed the air into a strong northeast jet that pushed the ocean over the coast from North Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic.
That northeast jet part of the storm, which was north of the front connected to the low, ended up in New England. The southern side of that streak of strong winds just north of the front was where the thunderstorms and heavy rain occurred.
NOR’EASTER BATTERS EAST COAST WITH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SURF — HERE’S WHERE IMPACTS ARE THE WORST
Meanwhile, the low center itself organized, which spread rain and its separate area of strong winds over southeastern New York and New Jersey as it drifted toward the Jersey Shore.
Effects will linger in the Northeast through tomorrow, but nice dry weather will return after that.
IN THE ATLANTIC
There is next to nothing. Tropical Depression Fay is hanging on in the middle of the ocean, while another non-tropical disturbance nearby has a medium chance of developing.
If that disturbance develops, it will move north ahead of the front associated with the nor'easter and wouldn't threaten land.
HURRICANE NOLO NEAR HAWAII
Nolo is moving farther from Hawaii, but the storm is strengthening. Winds will decrease around the big mountains on Hawaii Island and Maui, but some more rain is still possible. The largest rain totals are expected to end up between 10 and 20 inches.
Winds gusted over hurricane force yesterday in some locations, including on the southwest coast of Maui and the northern parts of the Big Island. Hurricanes and mountains don't go together well as we have now seen for the third time this season in Hawaii.
HURRICANE NOLO BRINGS DANGEROUS FLOODING TO HAWAII AFTER BEING DOWNGRADED TO CATEGORY 1 STORM
Nolo is forecast to peak in intensity tomorrow as it tracks south of the islands and then out into the open Pacific. All of Hawaii will experience some edge effects today and tomorrow, mostly in the form of elevated winds and periods of rain on the windward side of the tallest mountains.
HURRICANE POLO HEADING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA
Polo is weakening after a record stretch at Category 5 strength. The relatively small storm is arcing in the direction of Baja California Sur. It's forecast to arrive there tomorrow.
Hurricane alerts are in place for coastal areas of the Baja Peninsula and the Gulf of California. Everybody should stay aware of local instructions.
By Monday, Polo's moisture, along with some contributed by Hurricane Odalys, will arrive in the desert Southwest and the Plains. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is showing a 3-out-of-4-level risk of flash flooding around the four corners of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah. There's also a risk over a wider area in the Southwest.
The excessive moisture will continue into the middle of the country this week. A wider area of flooding is possible.
ELSEWHERE IN THE PACIFIC
Tropical Depression 18E formed off the coast of southern Mexico. Its initial track forecast is to stay offshore, but it's just developing. We’ll watch to be sure.
Computer forecast models predict that 18E will become a strong hurricane. Long-range projections are mixed. Some models take it out to sea and others show impacts next week in northern Mexico and Southern California. It will bear watching. As always, forecasts for just-developing systems are subject to significant change.
Yet one more storm is also likely to form between Hawaii and Mexico. But it's not expected to directly impact land.
Hurricanes Polo and Odalys have put a tremendous amount of energy into the ocean, which is spreading north toward Southern California. The coastline there was damaged by strong swells from Hurricane Marie earlier this month and is more vulnerable to flooding than normal.
The storm's swells will be especially impactful in northern Orange, Los Angeles, and Ventura counties.
The surf will be dangerous with powerful waves and strong currents. Pay attention to local instructions if you're planning to go to the beach over the next few days.
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