Australia Joins New Zealand, UK and the Impact of Tightening US Visa Rules

International tourism bounced back strongly in 2025 after several years of disruption. The UN Tourism World Tourism Barometer reported that more than 1.1 billion tourists travelled internationally between January and September 2025, about five percent more than the same period in 2024 and 3 percent above the pre‑pandemic year 2019. The surge was broad‑based: the Middle East recorded the strongest rebound, but Asia and the Pacific followed close behind, posting an 8 percent increase in arrivals in the first nine months of 2025 and reaching roughly 90 percent of pre‑COVID visitor numbers. Within Asia, north‑east Asia led with a 17 percent increase relative to 2024. These gains were supported by buoyant demand despite high travel prices and persistent geopolitical tension. Strong visitor spending was observed across numerous destinations, including Japan and Vietnam, which saw arrivals surge by around 21 percent. Global occupancy rates returned to 68 percent, matching 2024 levels.

While demand surged in many regions, the United States—historically the world’s second‑most visited country—experienced a slowdown. According to a U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, international arrivals to the U.S. totalled 72.4million in2024, still below the 2019 peak of 79.4million. Through May2025, arrivals were 2.4percent lower than the same period in2024 and down sharply from some major markets: Canadian visitors fell 16.8percent and South Korean visitors 11.3percent, though Mexican arrivals rose 13.9percent. Air passenger data from the U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) confirm the softness: non‑U.S. citizen air passenger arrivals in May2025 were 4.735million, down 5.3percent from May2024 and only 86percent of May2019 volumes. U.S. citizen departures, however, continued to rise and were 23percent above 2019 levels.

Southeast Asia: booming arrivals and flexible visas

The recovery in SoutheastAsia has been particularly robust. UN Tourism highlighted Vietnam and other Southeast Asian destinations among the fastest‑growing in the world—Vietnam recorded 21percent growth in arrivals in January‑September2025. Governments across the region have embraced flexible visa policies to capture pent‑up demand. Vietnam extended its e‑visa scheme to citizens of 80countries and lengthened stays for visa‑exempt nationals to 45days. Malaysia reintroduced its Visaon Arrival program for Chinese and Indian visitors, while Thailand offered multiple‑entry visas and waived requirements for travellers from China, Kazakhstan and India at various points in2024–25. These measures, alongside the return of Chinese outbound travel, propelled visitor numbers. Although data for every ASEAN member are not yet publicly available, national tourism boards reported high double‑digit growth and, in some cases, a return to or surpassing of 2019 levels.

The surge was not limited to arrivals. Outbound spending from large markets such as South Korea grew 7percent, showing that travellers from Asia are willing to spend. Increased air capacity also contributed: the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that international air traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometres rose 7percent in January‑September2025. Low‑cost carriers re‑activated routes linking secondary cities across the region, and flag carriers resumed long‑haul flights to Europe and North America.

Australia and NewZealand: strong recovery and diversification

Australia and NewZealand stand out as major beneficiaries of the global rebound. Tourism Research Australia’s report for the year ending June2025 shows that the country recorded 7.8million international trips—a 6percent increase over June2024—and 301million visitor nights, an 8percent rise. Spending by international visitors reached A$37.5billion, up 18percent from the previous year, while total visitor spending (including domestic) hit A$55.4billion, 24percent higher than in pre‑COVID 2019. Holiday visits rose sharply, and emerging markets such as the Philippines and Vietnam showed some of the strongest growth. These gains were supported by Australia’s early removal of pandemic‑era restrictions, targeted marketing campaigns and streamlined visa processing for key markets.

NewZealand’s recovery is also accelerating. StatsNZ reports that in August2025 the country welcomed 230,300 overseas visitors, about 16000 more than a year earlier and 92percent of August2019 levels. More than half of these visitors came from neighbouring Australia, but the United States, China, Japan and the United Kingdom were also significant contributors. On an annual basis, the year ended August2025 saw 3.41million visitor arrivals, 177000 higher than the previous year, including an increase of 22000 visitors from the United States and 20000 from the United Kingdom. NewZealand residents are also travelling in greater numbers; outbound trips increased, though growth was concentrated on short‑haul destinations like Australia and Fiji.

United Kingdom: tourism recovery and outbound enthusiasm

The United Kingdom remains one of the world’s top destinations and source markets. Office for National Statistics (ONS) data show that in2024 (the latest full year available) overseas residents made 42.6million visits to the UK, spending £32.5billion. This marked a sharp rebound from pandemic lows and placed the UK close to its 2019 visitor count. Americans were the largest cohort with 5.6million visits, underscoring the strong trans‑Atlantic connection. Meanwhile, UK residents took 94.6million trips abroad and spent £78.6billion, reflecting robust outbound demand. Spain remained the most popular destination, followed by France and Italy. Early indicators for2025 (not yet published) point to further growth, supported by a weak pound and the return of capacity at London airports.

United States: visa bottlenecks and new fees weigh on inbound tourism

The United States’ lagging performance is partly explained by policy‑driven friction. A U.S. State Department briefing in 2024 acknowledged that high demand and limited consular resources left some posts with visa interview wait times exceeding 90days. While the department issued a record 10.4million non‑immigrant visas in FY2023 and expanded interview waivers for certain renewals, backlogs persisted. In February2025 the department quietly narrowed interview‑waiver eligibility, limiting it primarily to diplomats and people renewing recently expired visitor visas. This shift, which took full effect on 2September2025, meant that nearly all non‑immigrant visa applicants—including children and seniors—had to schedule in‑person interviews. Consular officers retained discretion to waive interviews, but the overall effect was to lengthen processing queues just as global travel demand was surging.

More change came from the OneBigBeautifulBill Act (HR‑1), a broad spending measure signed on 4July2025. The law introduced several new immigration fees aimed at funding border enforcement. For FY2025, U.S. Customs and BorderProtection (CBP) announced that the fee for applying for a FormI‑94 Arrival/Departure Record at land borders would increase from US$6 to US$30—a new HR‑1 fee of $24 plus the existing $6 service charge. The ElectronicSystem for Travel Authorization (ESTA) fee for nationals of VisaWaiver Program countries doubled from US$21 to US$40. A new ElectronicVisaUpdateSystem (EVUS) fee of US$30 was introduced for certain Chinese nationals holding long‑valid visitor visas. The law also created a VisaIntegrityFee to be collected from every non‑immigrant visa applicant, but implementation requires cross‑agency coordination and had not yet been established as of mid‑2025. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) noted that the visa integrity fee will be addressed in a future rulemaking and is not yet being collected. Although individually modest, the new fees add to the cost of visiting the United States and reflect a broader shift towards user‑funded border enforcement.

These policies coincide with legislative changes that reduce marketing support for U.S. tourism. The CRS report notes that FY2025 budget reconciliation reduced matching funds for BrandUSA, the public‑private marketing organisation, to US$20million, down from US$100million in FY2024. Industry analysts predict that international visitor spending in the U.S. will fall to US$169billion in2025—about US$12billion less than in2024. Tourism Economics forecast a 9.4percent decline in visitors, attributing the drop to visa delays, the strong U.S. dollar and competition from other destinations.

Implications for global mobility and tourism

The tightening of U.S. visa rules and rising fees has broader implications for global mobility. For travellers from SoutheastAsia, Australia or NewZealand, the prospect of paying an extra US$40 for an ESTA or enduring a prolonged visa interview can deter discretionary trips to the United States. Growing middle‑class tourists from Vietnam or the Philippines may choose destinations with streamlined entry—such as Japan, SouthKorea, or Australia—rather than navigate U.S. bureaucracy. Similarly, European travellers facing the combined cost of the ESTA and a potential Visa Integrity Fee may prefer to holiday within the Schengen Area or explore the UK, where electronic travel authorisation rules are comparatively simple and fees are lower.

Airlines and tourism boards are already adjusting. Carriers are redeploying wide‑body aircraft away from the United States to routes connecting Europe with Asia and Oceania. Marketing campaigns in Australia and NewZealand highlight cultural affinities and natural attractions to lure travellers who might have considered U.S. trips. Southeast Asian governments are negotiating mutual visa‑waiver agreements and promoting multi‑country packages (e.g., Thailand‑Vietnam‑Laos circuits) to capture long‑haul travellers deterred by U.S. restrictions. The effect is a redistribution rather than a collapse of demand: global tourist flows continue to grow, but share is shifting towards regions that facilitate entry.

Looking ahead

If the United States does not address visa processing bottlenecks and rising costs, its share of global tourism could fall further. The overwhelming evidence from UN Tourism, Tourism Research Australia, StatsNZ and the ONS demonstrates that travellers have many alternatives and that flexible policies translate into market share. Conversely, improvements in U.S. consular staffing, the re‑expansion of interview waivers and a reconsideration of new fees could reinvigorate inbound demand. For 2026, the industry consensus is cautiously optimistic: global arrivals are expected to exceed 2019 levels, and regions that maintain open and efficient entry systems—particularly SoutheastAsia and Oceania—are poised to capture the next wave of travellers.

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