Second area to watch for development designated in Atlantic as tropical wave will move off Africa next week
The National Hurricane Center has designated two new areas to watch for potential tropical development during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with one showing a medium chance of formation and the other a low chance as activity begins to pick up across the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated two new areas to watch for potential tropical development during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as the chances of a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic basin continue to increase.
While development chances remain low for Tropical Development 1 over the next seven days, Tropical Development 2 has a better chance of becoming the Atlantic’s next tropical system. Here’s what the forecast shows for both disturbances and the factors that could influence their development.
Tropical Disturbance 1 is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Some development is possible during the early to middle part of next week while the system moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
While the chances of development over the next two days are 0%, in the next seven days, the chance of development is 20%.
Tropical Disturbance 2 area is located deep in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa, and the odds that this area spawns some trouble in the tropics are increasing.
The NHC is currently giving this area medium odds of developing over the next seven days, with a 40% chance.
Gradual development of this system is possible by the middle to latter part of next week as the disturbance moves across the Atlantic, with a tropical depression potentially forming during the second half of the week.
The tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday.
As these waves move into the Atlantic, they will be met by several factors that will determine whether tropical development will occur, including Saharan dust, unfavorable upper-level winds, and water temperatures.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently issued their updated 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, where they stated they estimate 7 to 13 named storms to form this season, 2 to 6 hurricanes, including up to two reaching Category 3 strength or higher. Those ranges include Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, which formed in the Gulf earlier this summer.
Government forecasters said they expect a very strong El Niño climate pattern to last through this fall, creating atmospheric conditions that will suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean.
El Niño, one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
During El Niño, above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean alter the position and strength of the subtropical jet stream. It's typically more robust and extends well into the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean. The jet stream is a belt of very fast winds high in the atmosphere.
Stick with FOX Weather as this story continues to develop.
The post Second area to watch for development designated in Atlantic as tropical wave will move off Africa next week appeared first on Fox Weather
