2026 Hurricane season: Colorado State University forecasts El Niño to dominate and suppress Atlantic activity
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be slightly less active than average, according to the April seasonal forecast issued on Thursday by Colorado State University (CSU) — which pioneered hurricane season forecasts in 1984.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be slightly less active than average, according to the April seasonal forecast issued on Thursday by Colorado State University (CSU) — which pioneered hurricane season forecasts in 1984.
CSU anticipates that a strong El Niño — which is typically associated with fewer named storms in the Atlantic — will become the dominant factor in determining tropical weather patterns this season, overcoming other forecast ingredients present that favor increased tropical development.
The CSU forecast calls for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, including 2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes this year. This is the fewest number of storms they’ve predicted since 2019.
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE?
In comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
El Niño is one of three climatological phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that describe natural changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation that can greatly influence global weather.
WHAT ARE EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERNS?
El Niño describes warmer than average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Niña describes colder than average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures are close to average.
According to a brief released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, La Niña has just ended, and neutral conditions have taken hold — signaling that El Niño will likely develop sometime in the next six months.
BRYAN NORCROSS: REFLECTING ON HURRICANE SEASON 2025
Some long-range forecast models indicate this El Niño will be a Super El Niño, meaning water temperatures are far warmer — more than 2 degrees Celsius — than average. However, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding how strong this event will be by the peak of the season, from mid-August through late October.
Taken in a vacuum, the stronger the El Niño event, the more wind shear to hinder storm development. A Super El Niño event would only act to further strengthen the hostile winds.
ATLANTIC 2026 HURRICANE SEASON COULD SEE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM POTENTIALLY STRONG EL NIÑO
The expectation of those hostile winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere across the Atlantic is a critical driver for this year’s below-average prediction. CSU anticipates wind shear — the change in wind speed or direction with height — across the tropical Atlantic will be the second highest since 1981, trailing only the 2015 season.
High vertical wind shear acts to tilt or rip apart developing tropical systems, preventing them from organizing into powerful hurricanes. It is the development of strong El Niño conditions that will help develop the shear.
However, many other factors influence storm activity during hurricane season, including sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, which remain near or slightly above average.
CSU's April forecast models indicate that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic will likely remain relatively warm and above normal throughout the season. These warmer waters typically provide fuel for storms.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, this sets up a bit of a battle between unfavorable wind conditions caused by El Niño and the warmer ocean waters that help storms grow.
"A similar setup occurred in 2023, when record-warm sea surface temperatures helped offset the suppressing effects of El Niño," the FOX Forecast Center said.
But ultimately, the high wind shear from El Niño is expected to be the more dominant, suppressing force in 2026.
Still, CSU forecasters qualified that exactly when El Niño forms will play an almost equal role in how much of the hurricane season is suppressed. Currently, most long-range models expect El Niño to develop by the peak of the season.
CSU will issue an updated forecast in June around the same time that NOAA releases its hurricane season forecast.
Aside from their headline predictions, CSU also noted that this was the first year they incorporated an AI-based forecast model to generate their seasonal projections.
Beyond these projections, both CSU forecasters and FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross cautioned that even in seasons with fewer storms, it only takes one to create major impacts.
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